Friday, October 15, 2010

THE BODOGS ARE BARKIN: Week #7

This week's bombardment of posts continues with the 7th week of THE BODOGS ARE BARKIN. Last week the gamblers landed in the red for their cumulative total for the first time all season, with Chuck being the biggest casualty losing the maximum of $200. Let's see if we can't get back on track this week.


Week 6 Results


1. Mikey: +$36Mikey's 6-1 since his week four catastrophe.

2. Mattare: +$4.50Quietly gaining ground.

3. Hinkle: -$29The leader takes his first hit of the year.

4. Chuck: -$200Sing it Tom.


Overall Standings thru Week 6


1. Hinkle: +$396.50Will he finally ween himself off Dan Persa???

2. Mattare: +$232.60You're next Hinkle.

3. Mikey: +$88Out of the basement but still a big hill to climb.

4. Chuck: +$84.16Chuck falls into the cellar for the first time all year.


Week 7 Pick Summary


Hinkle: UTEP > UAB, WM > ND, Navy > SMU, Aub-Ark (Under)

Mattare: Pitt > Cuse, FSU > BC, USC > Cal, OSU-Wisc (Under)

Mikey: TAMU > Mizz, Pitt > Cuse, BC > FSU, FL > MSU

Chuck: Mizz > TAMU, MTSU > GT, USC > Cal, Miss > Bama


Gamblers Breakdown

-----HINKLE-----

Dan Persa has let me down 3 weeks in a row. It is time to drop him quickly (but not nearly as quick as Chuck dropped from 2nd place). I spent the last 2 weeks holding a firm grip on my lead with gaining only around $50 total. 4-4 is not bad, but obviously I needed to look harder at some of these games as Vegas gets smarter with the lines deeper and deeper into the year. With that being said, time to put up a huge week.

Mikey- Looking for me to fall hard? Child Please.
Mattare- Hope this week is your "time to catch me week".
Chuck- How good are the Huskers?

TIME TO PUT A NAIL IN THE COFFIN

Game #1: UTEP (+2.) over UAB...$33 for $30 (scoresnodds.com)

UTEP comes into this game 5-1 while UAB is 1-4. UAB has not played in 10 days after getting smoke by UCF and then a close loss to Tennessee. While I know UAB has played a stronger schedule, it is hard to overlook their production on the offensive side of the ball. UAB is going to put up numbers as well but I will take an offensive team getting points.

**BONUS** If 33 Miners can survive 69 days 1/2 mile deep, these Miners can survive getting 2.5 points.

Game #2: Western Michigan (+24.5) over Notre Dame...$66 for $60 (BetOnline)

Western Michigan has the 23rd ranked passing attack in all of college football. They average 29 points per game. Both teams played a similar opponent in Michigan State. Michigan State was able to beat up on WM but running the ball down their throats. MSU boasts the 12th best rushing attack in the country at 225/game where ND is way back at 89th. No doubt the Irish will look to go to the air but I see this game as a high scoring affair in which the Irish pull out the victory but closer than the experts predict. ND- 45 WMU- 27

Game #3: Navy (-1) over SMU...$22 for $20 (BetOnline)

Navy is coming off of 3 roads games to meet the Mustangs at home. Last year Navy won this game 38-35 in a good ole shootout. I look for Navy to control the ball and clock while forcing a few turnovers to get this win at home. I think SMU has inflated offensive numbers because of teams they played and the shootouts they got in (TTech, TCU). I love the Middies in this spot.

Game #4: Auburn - Arkansas (Under 60.5)...$44 for $40 (Sportsbook)

The offenses are good. The defenses are better. I would be SHOCKED if they game turns into a shootout. I could literally see this being a 17-13 game. Do the boys in Vegas see something I don't? Most likely because I am in Allentown and not in Vegas. But guess what oddsmakers, I am hitting at a 75% clip this year so shove it.

-----MATTARE-----

Game #1: Pittsburgh (+1) over Syracuse…$66 to win $60 (covers.com)

This one was taken off the board on a couple books. I know that Pitt has been a (predictable) disappointment this season, but they're still far more talented than the Orange. Syracuse is 4-1 but their most impressive victory is over South Florida. It's great to see them turning things around and knocking on the door of a bowl berth, but 'Cuse doesn't have the horses to compete with the top tier of the Big East yet no matter how much they underachieve.

Game #2: Florida State (-21.5) over Boston College…$33 to win $30

Boston College frosh quarterback Chase Rettig gets the first road start of his career the week after Dave Shinskie strengthened his status as the worst quarterback in America (7 of 24, 89 yards, 2 INT's...G'DAM!). BC can't run or pass the ball. Florida State is coming off a big W against the U and confidence is sky high. The Criminoles are primed to revenge their two straight losses to BC in a big, big way.

Game #3: Southern Cal (-2.5) over Cal…$33 to win $30

I can't stand Lane Kiffin and he's already burned me once this year with his two-point conversion sheet that just has a giant green GO on it...but I just think Vegas is sleeping on a team that's still one of the most talented squads in the college football. The Trojans stop the bleeding if only for a week.

Game #4: Ohio State - Wisconsin (Under 49)…$27.50 to win $25

Wisky hasn't looked impressive this season but Camp Randall is going to be rockin' and the homefield advantage could play a huge role in keeping it close. I can see the game playing out two ways: Ohio State shuts down the Badgers and wins something along the lines of 27-10 or Wisconsin keeps it close and it's an ugly 17-13 game. Either way it's going to be a lower scoring affair. I'll grab the under.

-----MIKEY-----

Another solid showing last week going 3-1 but it's going to take some bigger paydays to climb up the standings. Not as many good games this week as compared to last but it's time to make a move for the top as we get into the second half of the season (all lines from covers.com):

Game #1: Texas A&M (-3.5) over Missouri...$55 to win $50

The Aggies have had some tough losses this season, the latest being to Arkansas last weekend in Dallas. I still believe they're a good football team while also believing that Missouri should not be sniffing the Top 25 even though they're currently ranked 21st. A&M has some frustration to let out and they'll do it Saturday on an overrated Missouri squad.

Game #2: Pittsburgh (+1) over Syracuse...$33 to win $30

Pitt put up a solid showing against Notre Dame last week, keeping it close for most of the game and giving themselves a chance to win even though they didn't. I don't like Dave Wannstedt at all (this goes back to his Chicago Bears days) but he's got some playmakers on both sides of the ball and better use them if he wants to keep his mustache in Pittsburgh for the future. Syracues is coming off a big road win (for them) at South Florida so I see a letdown this weekend. It might be close but the Panthers need this game more and they'll find a way to get it.

Game #3: Boston College (+22) over Florida St...$55 to win $50

This is a great spot for Florida St. to shit the bed after their massive win over the U last Saturday. Boston College is riding very low right now, but that gives them the opportunity to go on the road with nothing to lose and wing it around for 60 minutes. The Seminoles will come out flat against a team they probably won't prepare as hard for and that will give BC the cover.

Game #4: Florida (-7) over Mississippi St...$55 to win $50

The Gators are in a bit of a tailspin right now, losing their last 2 games and searching for inspiration on either side of the ball. Mississippi St. on the other hand is surginig, smoking Houston last week and running their record to 4-2 to gain them some serious bowl bid attention. Seemingly everything sets up for the Bulldogs but college football is a mysterious game and I think Urban Meyer is pissssssed. Florida comes out with a new gameplan and a sense of urgency to bury Miss St. in The Swamp.

-----CHUCK-----

Work has been whooping my ass this week (though not as bad as K-State whooped my wallet's ass last week) so my apologies for the lack of analysis. However, I will not apologize for the following: going 4-0 this weekend, not calling back that girl from Spider Kelley's, and partying in general. All lines from sportsbook.com.

Game #1: Missouri (+3.5) over Texas A&M...$50 to win $45.45

Remember when people thought Jerrod Johnson was good? I'm getting nostalgic.

Game #2: MTSU (+19) over Georgia Tech...$50 to win $45.45

How the hell could Mattare leave me off his Tailgating All-Star team?!?! It's like leaving Tiger out of the Ryder Cup and Pauly D out of Jersey Shore.

Game #3: USC (-2.5) over Cal...$50 to win $45.45

So down with one bear mascot. Buuuuuut...

Game #4: The Rebel Black Bears of Mississippi (+20.5) over Alabama...$50 to win $45.45

I don't know why the Bear would wear anything but the "Grove Attire." All he needs is a beer in a coozie and a sundress-wearing Southern Belle Bear on his arm.

1 comment:

  1. "The offenses are good. The defenses are better. I would be SHOCKED if they game turns into a shootout. I could literally see this being a 17-13 game. Do the boys in Vegas see something I don't? Most likely because I am in Allentown and not in Vegas. But guess what oddsmakers, I am hitting at a 75% clip this year so shove it."

    Vegas knew that Auburn would cover that Over by itself I suppose. Eat your humble pie boy.

    ReplyDelete