Wednesday, October 6, 2010

THE BODOGS ARE BARKIN: Week #6

We’re approaching the midway point of the regular season and the boys are all still in good shape. Mikey’s head is back above water after briefly dipping into the red in week four while Hinkle is still well ahead of the field despite suffering his first week with more than one loss. He's only missed four games all year. Two of them have been when he bet on Northwestern. Like Chuck losing twice when picking Duke he had to have learned his lesson...right?


Last week was devoid of any big bets but Chuck changes that right out of the gate this week. Check the recap and then get down to the picks!


Week 5 Results


1. Mattare: +$78…Takes the pole position for the first time.

2. Hinkle: +$74…Even when he goes .500 he’s moving forward.

3. Mikey: +$58…Solid 3-1 bounce back week for Miguel.

4. Chuck: +$54…Goes 3-1 but that one loss was his big bet.


Overall Standings thru Week 5


1. Hinkle: +$425.50…The gap is only getting wider.

2. Chuck: +$284.16…Best check the rearview mirror, Chuck.

3. Mattare: +$228.10…Slowly crawling up the leaderboard.

4. Mikey: +$52…He’s back in the black!


Week 6 Pick Summary


Hinkle: CSU > AF, TCU > Wy, NW > Pur, Tenn > Geo

Chuck: KSU > Neb, Kent (ML), USC (ML), ULL > Ok St

Mattare: Ark > TAMU, FL > LSU, MSU > Hou, Conn-Rut (Under)

Mikey: Rut > Conn, OSU > Ind, Kent > Aub, USC-Stan (Under)

Gamblers Breakdown

-----HINKLE-----

We went 2-2 last week and I am not mad at that at all. I took a shot on BC over ND because that line seemed WAY to obvious to jump all over ND vs a Freshman QB. The Fightin' Dan Persa's have now missed covering by a combined 5 points the past 2 weeks. The Over easily covered as did my play of the week on Iowa. Not too much on the board I liked hence the small bets except for hammering Iowa. Congrats to Chuck on a solid week. May the battle continue.

LOOKING TO MAKE A STATEMENT THIS WEEK! TIME TO MAKE A MOVE IN A BIG WAY...HOPEFULLY UP!!!

Game #1: Colorado State (+25) over Air Force…$33 to win 30

Colorado State started the year 0-3 and then got their first win vs a respectable Idaho team putting up 36 points. Last week they played a fierce TCU team and they were shut out 24-0. They lost big to a top 25 Nevada team and opened the year with a loss to Big 12 Colorado. I do not think CSU is as bad as their record shows, but rather they have played tough opponents out of the gate. Air Forces runs the ball which will eat the clock and keep the number of possessions down. Look for CSU to find a way to hang around in this game and keep it closer than the boys in the desert predict.

Game #2: TCU (-34.5) over Wyoming…$44 to win $40

TCU averages 41 per game and is 10th in the country in scoring. They are fresh off of 2 road wins and finally return home for a game in front of their faithful. Wyoming has had a BRUTAL schedule to open and it does not get any easier this week. After Boise got jumped in the polls, look for a team like TCU to pour it on for 4 quarters.

Game #3: Northwestern (-10) over Purdue…$33 to win $30

I swear on my life I had zero intention to take the fighting Dan Persa's 3 weeks in a row but Purdue will once again be without their starting QB. They just got beat by Toledo. TOLEDO. I look for NW to put up at least 35 in this night time showdown and move to 6-0 and remain in 1st place in the Big Ten.

Game #4: Tennessee (+11.5) over Georgia…$66 to win $60

Ok so let me get this right....Georgia is 1-4 and they are giving 11.5 points to someone in the SEC? A team that played the likes of Florida respectable. They lost to LSU by 2. Florida by 14. GEORGIA?!?!?!? I am rolling with my gut on this one. Let's go Vols.

-----CHUCK-----

After a weekend full of beautiful babies, grilled meats, and vintage Clemson football (vintage=frustrating), I am refreshed and ready to win some money. The cash train departs early this week, and runs right through the Little Apple on Thursday night.

Game #1: Kansas St. (+11.5) over Nebraska…$170 to win $154.55

I had this spread pegged anywhere between 6-8 points, so this is a no-brainer. Let me think of 100 reasons to bet on the 'Cats: 1. Home underdog 2. Thursday night game 3. Daniel Thomas 4-100. Bill Snyder Don't get me wrong, Nebraska is a top 5 team and should win this game, but K-State is a legit contender in the Big 12 North. They will control the time of possession throughout and keep this in the single digits.

Game #2: Kentucky (+210) over Auburn…$10 to win $21

Welcome to your classic trap game. Auburn is worn down from consecutive physical battles with Clemson and South Carolina. I am still not sold on the downfield passing accuracy of Cam Newton, so if the Wildcats can limit the chunks he picks up on the ground then they will have a great chance to pull off the upset. Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke have always been dynamic playmakers for UK, but the Cats are now getting solid play from quarterback Mike Hartline. This offensive trio should get the best of a worn down Auburn defense.

Game #3: USC (+315) over Stanford…$10 to win $31.50

Talent vs. Substance. Potential vs. Realized Potential. USC still has the athletes, but Stanford has been the better team this year. Both teams are coming off of crushing defeats within the conference, but USC hasn't forgotten about last year when they were absolutely humiliated at the hands of the Cardinal. Probation and the lack of a potential bowl game have hurt USC's motivation thus far, but they won't need much to get up for this game. I will take a bunch of pissed off, angry, vengeful five-star athletes every day of the week.

Game #4: UL-Lafayette (+24) over Oklahoma St…$10 to win $9.09

The Pokes won a barn-burner last week against the Aggies, but an emotional game like that can take its toll. Combine this with the fact that I actually had a discussion this week with somebody who remembered the 2004 Missouri-Troy game in which Troy upset a top 25 Missouri team down in Alabama, and I am thinking deja vu. So this week, a Big 12 team travels to take on a seemingly overmatched Sun Belt team in front of some drunk Ragin' Cajuns. UL-L won't win this one, but it will be closer than expected.

-----MATTARE-----

Hinkle is cruising along and it’s tempting to try to chase him with a big week, but at this juncture prudence is the right philosophy. Nothing jumps out as a game that’s worthy of a big push so it’s another batch of medium-to-small bets. Let’s try to keep things rolling in the right direction and wait for the gambling gods to smite Hinkle, shall we? All spreads are from sportsbook.com.

Game #1: Arkansas (-6) over Texas A&M…$44 to win $40

I feel like everyone bailed on the Hogs’ bandwagon a little too quickly after they nearly pulled off the upset over Bama. Petrino and Mallet have to be licking their chops at the prospect of facing an A&M secondary that failed its only test thus far (last week against Okie State). This spread would be tough to take if the game was going to be played in Aggieland at Kyle Field, but it’s at Jerry World (the new Cowboys Stadium) so we’ll jump all over it.

Game #2: Florida (-6.5) over LSU…$33 to win $30

Florida has been unimpressive to say the least and they’re fresh off an ass whooping at the hands of the Crimson Tide, but LSU is probably the most overrated team in the sport right now. The inept Tiger offense against any SEC defense is a mismatch, but Les Miles against Urban Meyer is a HUGE mismatch (and the thing is every LSU fan will wholeheartedly agree...not a good sign in the Bayou). Fun fact: Urbie has faced LSU all five years he’s been at Florida and he’s covered the spread every time. I’ll lay the points.

Game #3: Mississippi St (-5) over Houston…$27.50 to win $25

Give Houston credit for bouncing back and beating Tulane after losing quarterback and darkhorse Heisman candidate Case Keenum AND his backup the previous week in the loss to UCLA. Unfortunately for Cougar fans Mississippi State is not Tulane and they’re going to remind everyone just how big the gap between the SEC and Conference USA is.

Game #4: UConn-Rutgers (Under 42.5)…$27.50 to win $25

UConn has been a disappointment thus far, but they’re actually still a legitimate contender for the Big East title since their slip-ups (Michigan and Temple) have been out of conference. Jordan Toddman’s return from injury sparked the offense in a rout of Vandy last weekend and its defense has actually been pretty stout (suddenly giving up only 30 to Michigan looks like a dam good accomplishment). Rutgers on the other hand might be the only team in major college football with an offense worse than LSU’s. This is going to be an ugly game with a final like 20-10.

-----MIKEY-----

I got the bounce back I needed last weekend, hitting 3 of my 4 picks and getting on the right side of 0. There's still plenty of catching-up to do though because Hinkle apparently has a sports almanac from the future (ala Back to the Future 2) that's allowing him to bury the competition. No worries, he'll lose his mojo soon and the race will get closer as the schedule gets shorter (all lines from covers.com):

Game #1: Rutgers (+6) over Connecticut…$22 to win $20

Both these teams have been pretty awful to start the season: Rutgers lost to Tulane at home last week and UConn has been thumped on the road multiple times already. All signs point to this being an ugly game for the most part, but Rutgers will be mad enough after their most recent home loss to come out fired up and give the Huskies a close game.

Game #2: Ohio St. (-21.5) over Indiana…$22 to win $20

The Buckeyes seem to have a tough time with Illinois every year and last weekend proved no exception. At the same time, Indiana seemed to blow their best game of the year on Michigan as they nearly took the Wolverines down in Bloomington. I don't think the Hoosiers have enough left to hang with Ohio St., who will be quick to show why they're still no. 2 in the BCS.

Game #3: Kentucky (+6) over Auburn…$44 to win $40

I've been riding the Wildcats all season and don't see any reason to stop now. They've had some tough outcomes recently, but have tested themselves thoroughly and are ready to take down a quality opponent. Cam Newton and the Tigers are currently riding high with a great start to the season and BCS aspirations, but the SEC is dangerous every week and Kentucky will remind them of that this week.

Game #4: USC - Stanford (Under 60)...$44 to win $40

I reallllly hate Lane Kiffin so I'm thinking this game is 59-0 Stanford, that's all the logic I'm using.

4 comments:

  1. Jedi Warrior Master IIIOctober 7, 2010 at 7:34 AM

    What game did Chuck lose? I thought he went 4-0 with a monster day which is why I said congrats on a solid week...I must have goofed that up somewhere which is why I went a big larger this week thinking he was right on my heels.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Chuck is in a whooooole heap of trouble.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Game #1: Kansas St. (+11.5) over Nebraska…$170 to win $154.55

    I had this spread pegged anywhere between 6-8 points, so this is a no-brainer. Let me think of 100 reasons to bet on the 'Cats: 1. Home underdog 2. Thursday night game 3. Daniel Thomas 4-100. Bill Snyder Don't get me wrong, Nebraska is a top 5 team and should win this game, but K-State is a legit contender in the Big 12 North. They will control the time of possession throughout and keep this in the single digits.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Q: Who is "Anonymous"?
    A: HINKLE, WITH ANOTHER BIG WEEK

    ReplyDelete