Week 4 Results
1. Hinkle: +$106...Hinkle continues his torrid start.
2. Mattare: +$62.50...Three straight 3-1 weeks and still falling way behind.
3. Chuck: +$54...Hovering around .500 but he keeps hitting the big bets that matter.
4. Mikey: -$173...Mikey's the first one to take a big hit...and it was laaaarge.
Overall Standings thru Week 4
1. Hinkle: +$349.50...We're going to start calling him "The Oracle."
2. Chuck: +$230.16...Within striking distance if Hinkle ever slips up.
4. Mattare: +$150.10 ...Slowly crawling up the leaderboard.
3. Mikey: -$6...Hits the RESET button after a fast start.
Week 5 Pick Summary
Hinkle: BC > ND, Iowa > PSU, ASU-OSU > 56, NW > Minn
Chuck: OSU > ASU, VT > NC St, Ind > Mich, Okla > Tex
Mattare: Navy > AF, Bama-FL <> MD, UGA > Colo
Mikey: Kent-Miss > 58.5, Wisc > MSU, Bama > FL, Iowa > PSU
Well kids here we sit after 4 weeks at 12-2-2. What impresses me the most about all of my picks is that I was right there in almost all of the games. My losses have been by 1 point in the BYU/AF over and 1.5 points in the Northwestern game last week. I am 4.5 points from being a perfect 16-0. I do realize I also had lady luck on my side when Boise almost blew their massive 1st half lead vs. VT. All in all, I am happy to be on the right side of the ball in all of these games. Hopefully the magic continues.
Game #1: Boston College (+2.5) over Notre Dame...$22 to win $20
If you are 2-1 and pull your 25 year old QB no matter how bad he is, then replace him with another guy, and replace him with a TRUE FRESHMAN, then that tells me you have some confidence in the young lad. On top of it, his name is Chase. I know 2 Chase's.
A. Chase Utley- No need for explanation
B. Chase Schictl who is 11 years old with the HOTTEST mom I have even seen.
ND struggles in this series. Too many questions all around. After a tough defeat to VT I look for the Eagles to respond in a big way.
Game #2: Iowa (-7) over PSU...$110 to win $100
PSU cannot put up big numbers vs mediocre squads and did nothing vs Bama. Look for an impressive win for the Hawkeyes. They will own all 3 phases of the game.
Game #3: Arizona State/Oregon State (Over 56)...$22 to win $20
Tons of passing yards, Tons of rushing yards, Tons of big plays all around. This game goes into the 70's.
Game #4: Northwestern (-5.5) over Minnesota...$22 to win $20
DAN PERSA. Going right back to him until he plays a lack luster game.
Don't be too jealous, but I get to spend the weekend down in God's Country watching my Tigers out-swag The U. Too bad Vegas doesn't take bets on my makeout whoredom at Clemson games, otherwise I would have a real lock for you. Instead, be happy these fine selections:
Game #1: Oregon St. (-3.5) over Arizona State...$66 to win 60
The Beavers did it for me last week, and I am counting on them to do it again this week. Although the Fightin' Phil Mickelsons have looked good the past two weeks against Oregon and Wisconsin, it is this very same stretch that is going to cost them this week. Playing teams of that caliber in back-to-back weeks takes a huge physical and mental toll, and as the entire Pac 10 knows (cough USC), you must be on top of your game to win in Corvalis. Expect a heavy dose of 'Quizz Rodgers and no INT's from Ryan "Don't Call Me Andy" Katz to add up to a 7-point Beaver victory.
Game #2: Virginia Tech (-3.5) over NC State...$55 to win $50
Don't look now, but after a Mark Teixeira-type start the Hokies are finally starting to hit their stride. The defense has played much better the past two weeks and Tyrod Taylor continues to show improved awareness and decision-making at quarterback. We are finally starting to see the Virginia Tech football team that experts thought we'd see at the beginning of the season. This is not good news for Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack who looked good last week in a 45-28 beating of Georgia Tech in Atlanta. I expect Wilson to get his numbers but the NC State defense will have a tough time keeping the Hokie offense off the field, and that will be the difference.
Game #3: Indiana (+10.5) over Michigan...$44 to win $40
Shoelace is nicked up, and Rich Rod doesn't want him to go down with a more severe injury than what happened to his knee last week. The result will be a decreased dose of Denard on the ground which is welcome news for the Hoosier defense. The threat of Shoelace's legs opens up holes in the defensive secondary, but if he is limited on the ground then these holes get a lot tighter. Quietly, the Hoosiers have also gotten off to an undefeated start behind the efficient play of quarterback Ben Chappell. The redshirt senior is averaging 296 YPG through the air with 9 TD's and zero picks. Michigan has a bullseye on them once again, and Indiana may just win this one outright.
Game #4: Oklahoma (-3.5) over Texas...$33 to win $30
Texas looked absolutely awful last week, and OU hasn't looked much better this season. The difference between these two teams is at the skill positions. While Texas is still looking for some consistent playmakers for Garrett Gilbert to get the ball to, the Sooners have maybe the best trio of skill players in the country in Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and Ryan Broyles. Oklahoma, who has only won once in the last five meetings between these teams, should use this firepower to their advantage and cruise to a fairly comfortable victory over the Longhorns.
I was so tempted to take Southern Cal this weekend because I like both the line and the over against Washington, but the Trojans already bit me once in the butt this year allowing a backdoor cover thanks to Kiffin's inexplicable (and unearned) hubris. It took Chuck two weeks to learn not to bet on the team he hates (Duke), I'm learning after the first time.
(Of course, watch Lane and the Cheaters blow out Washington and easily hit the over now that I haven't bet on them...reason #432 I hate him/them.)
I think there are a lot of sucker lines this week so no real big bets, but I still managed to find four solid winners.
Game #1: Navy (+10) over Air Force...$44 to win $40
I get it, Navy hasn't looked great this year...but 10 points?!? The Zoomies haven't beaten Navy since 2002. This will be a battle and even if Ricky Dobbs and the Mids come up short it's going to be a tight game. I'm tempted to take the Moneyline at +320, but I'll be a wimp and take the points.
Game #2: Bama-UF (Under 48)...$33 to win $30
Florida's offense has struggled a bit but their defense has been just fine. Urban has said he's going to load up with four defensive tackles in a 5-2 front to slow down Ingram and Richardson and make Bama beat them through the air. This has the makings of an ugly, low-scoring slugfest along the lines of like 24-13.
Game #3: Duke (+7.5) over Maryland...$22 to win $20
Duke got beat up by Bama and followed that up with a stinker at home against Army, but they've got some offensive firepower and a great coach in Dave Cutcliffe. I expect them to turn their season around toward respectability this Saturday against a Terp team that shouldn't be giving anyone 7.5 points.
Game #4: Georgia (-4) over Colorado...$22 to win $20
AJ Green returns for the Dawgs too late to salvage the season, but just in time to inch Dan Hawkins a little closer to the exit.
Is it possible they'll be a worse week this season than the one I authored last week? Maybe not but if it does I'm hoping it's you Hinkle. Going conservative this week as I lick my wounds and try to get back in this thing. (all lines from covers.com):
Game #1: Kentucky-Mississippi (Over 58.5)...$33 to win $30
Well Kentucky, you made me look about as bad as Lindsay Lohan last week (maybe I need rehab...for the 10th time! It seems to work for her) as you lost by 30 points. After scoring next to nothing against Florida last Saturday, the Wildcats head to Ole Miss this weekend to take on the pass-happy Rebels. Hopefully both teams will unleash some offense on the field and hit the over to start my comeback.
Game #2: Wisconsin (-2) over Michigan St...$22 to win $20
It's a shame Mark Dantonio won't be on the sideline against the Badgers as it's one of the most compelling matchups of the weekend. I like Wisconsin in this one because it should be fairly close to the end and John Clay can control clock with his bruising running style.
Game #3: Alabama (-8) over Florida...$22 to win $20
Alabama won a hard fought game at Arkansas last week (not by enough though) and returns home to face Florida. The Gators are now anchored by a new QB who can actually handle snaps without fumbling and brings a big running threat for opposing defenses to consider. This may be an issue for any other defense, but Alabama's D is the best in the country and they'll be ready to shut down the Gators O at home while Ingram runs wild and gets his Heisman hype rolling.
Game #4: Iowa (-7) over Penn St...$33 to win $30
Iowa lost a tough game on the road at Arizona a few weeks back but they're still a very good football team. Penn St. looked rather unimpressive last weekend, battling Temple for 4 quarters in Happy Valley, and have been very average on the season. I realize they have a freshman QB running the show which may cause some inconsistency, but going against a top opponent like Iowa will display that and cause some problems for the Nittany Lions. The Hawkeyes are much better than their foe this weekend and should cruise to an easy victory.