As our long-time readers know, last year Mikey and I went head to head in a weekly pick'em contest over the course of the year. We felt like it got a little stale so we're going to switch it up this year.
We've added TWO new horses to the race: our fellow degenerate gambler and former Central Catholic Viking Joshua Hinkle (who will introduce himself in a bit) along with my roommate Chuck, a Clemson grad who obsesses over college football as much as the rest of us on this site. We also totally re-did the format so it's more interesting and more realistic (because really, this is how we'll be betting the games).
Here are the new rules:
* Each person can bet between $100 & $200 per week. You must pick at least 4 games, which means the max you can bet on a game is $170.
* Bets can be Spread, Moneyline, O/U, Prop Bets--doesn't matter.
* Each person also gets $100 to place on preseason long-term bets of their choice. This will turn into a wild card down the stretch.
* Each pick will have the listed spread, juice (-110, -120, etc), and what site the line came from.
Simple enough, right? We'll track all three of our results in detail each week and crown a champion when the bowl games have completed.
On to the picks! We'll start with Mr. Hinkle. I figured we needed to get him involved because I probably spend more time on the phone with him in the fall discussing the lines than I spend on the phone with my girlfriend.
HINKLE
Guten Tag WNG Readers,
My Name is Joshua L. Hinkle and I am the newest contributor to this already established site. Before I lay out my winning weekend (and yours as well), let me take a few moments to introduce myself.
We've added TWO new horses to the race: our fellow degenerate gambler and former Central Catholic Viking Joshua Hinkle (who will introduce himself in a bit) along with my roommate Chuck, a Clemson grad who obsesses over college football as much as the rest of us on this site. We also totally re-did the format so it's more interesting and more realistic (because really, this is how we'll be betting the games).
Here are the new rules:
* Each person can bet between $100 & $200 per week. You must pick at least 4 games, which means the max you can bet on a game is $170.
* Bets can be Spread, Moneyline, O/U, Prop Bets--doesn't matter.
* Each person also gets $100 to place on preseason long-term bets of their choice. This will turn into a wild card down the stretch.
* Each pick will have the listed spread, juice (-110, -120, etc), and what site the line came from.
Simple enough, right? We'll track all three of our results in detail each week and crown a champion when the bowl games have completed.
On to the picks! We'll start with Mr. Hinkle. I figured we needed to get him involved because I probably spend more time on the phone with him in the fall discussing the lines than I spend on the phone with my girlfriend.
HINKLE
Guten Tag WNG Readers,
My Name is Joshua L. Hinkle and I am the newest contributor to this already established site. Before I lay out my winning weekend (and yours as well), let me take a few moments to introduce myself.
A. Like Al Bundy, I once scored 4 touchdowns in a game.
B. I have attended more colleges than girls you have kissed.
C. Before this post is complete, chances are I have proposed at least two trades in one of my fantasy leagues.
D. If Notre Dame went 0-12, it would give me great pleasure to watch Billy ride Mattare for the following 300+ days and watch the bar antics that would follow.
Now for the winners
GO BIG OR GO HOME!!!!
...not this weekend. Too many questions out there so it pains me to play this smart and try to feel out a few winners rather than go for a monster lead to start the year off. All spreads came from www.scoresandodds.com.
Game 1: Utah (-3) over Pitt...$27.50 to win $25
Utah has a strong defensive line which will limit the running ability of big time playmaker Dion Lewis. The "Stache" is 2-6 ATS the last 8 September games while the Utes are 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 non-conference games. Too many questions at QB for Pitt as well in a hostile environment. I will lay the points and look for a big time home opener at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
Game 2: Fresno State (-2.5) over Cincinnati...$33 to win $30
Pat Hill has never lost a home opener at Bulldog Stadium. Tons of questions for both teams. I am not sure if anyone has heard, but some guy named Brian Kelly left the helm for the Bearcats to take over the lack luster Notre Dame "Barely Put Up a Fight" Irish.
They only return 6 players on the defensive side of the ball and lose Mardy Gilyard on O. The Bulldogs have some of their own shoes to fill as they lost RB Ryan Matthews to the Orlando Super-Hurlers in the 2010 4th and Inches Dynasty Rookie Draft. Look for the Bulldogs to rise to the challenge and put on a show to start the season 1-0.
They only return 6 players on the defensive side of the ball and lose Mardy Gilyard on O. The Bulldogs have some of their own shoes to fill as they lost RB Ryan Matthews to the Orlando Super-Hurlers in the 2010 4th and Inches Dynasty Rookie Draft. Look for the Bulldogs to rise to the challenge and put on a show to start the season 1-0.
Game 3: Boise State (-2) over Virginia Tech...$22 to win $20
Boise State is my favorite team. Every since I spent a summer there I was sold it was a top 10 place to be in the US. The hot dog vendor on Wednesday nights with one arm makes the best possible dogs ever. If it had Yocco's sauce on it, I would move now.
Here is the only thing I need to say about this game. Kellen Moore is 26-1 as a starter and has thrown for over 7,000 yards and 64 TDS. Last year he had the best ratio in the country with 39 TDS to only 3 INTS. He is a coach's kid and will make smart decisions. The Broncos roll 3,000 miles away from the Smurf Turf to start the road to the National Championship!
Here is the only thing I need to say about this game. Kellen Moore is 26-1 as a starter and has thrown for over 7,000 yards and 64 TDS. Last year he had the best ratio in the country with 39 TDS to only 3 INTS. He is a coach's kid and will make smart decisions. The Broncos roll 3,000 miles away from the Smurf Turf to start the road to the National Championship!
Game 4: Purdue/Notre Dame (Under 54.5)...$33 to win $30
At first, I was going to take Purdue +11. Then when I began to write why, I decided the smarter bet was the points. We all know what the stadium will be like for the new season under the new coach. The in state rivalry. Both teams finally get to hit someone with a different jersey instead of their brothers like they have been all through camp.
With a new QB under center in South Bend and Coach Kelly looking to start of his campaign with a big W, I think that the nerves will be high which will cause a sloooowww start to the game. I would not be shocked if it was a 10-7, 13-6 kinda game at half. Both teams are going to try to feel each other out before they hit the half so they can come up with solid scheme for the second session. I see the Irish coming out with a 24-17 win.
With a new QB under center in South Bend and Coach Kelly looking to start of his campaign with a big W, I think that the nerves will be high which will cause a sloooowww start to the game. I would not be shocked if it was a 10-7, 13-6 kinda game at half. Both teams are going to try to feel each other out before they hit the half so they can come up with solid scheme for the second session. I see the Irish coming out with a 24-17 win.
$100 Budget of Preseason Futures Bets (all from Bodog)
1. Jerrod Johnson (EVEN) > Pass Yds than Gabbert and Jones ($50 to win $50)
- - - - - - - - - -
1. Jerrod Johnson (EVEN) > Pass Yds than Gabbert and Jones ($50 to win $50)
2. Kirk Cousins (+150) > Pass Yds than Pryor and Tolzien ($20 to win $30)
3. Dion Lewis (+175) > Rush TDs than Martinek, Devine, Todman, Anderson ($20 to win $35)4. Kellen Moore (10-1) for Heisman ($10 to win $100)
- - - - - - - - - -
CHUCK
My name is Charles Schulz and like Mike Singletary, I want winners!!! Hopefully I have four of them below, but before we get into it let me give you a few bullet points about myself:
- I bleed Clemson orange.
- I love college football more than 99% of husbands love their wives.
- I have a fascination with white skill position players.
Without further ado, here you go (all lines from Sportsbook.com):
Usually you don’t mess with home ‘dogs, but in this case you can’t help but take the Gophers. Adam Weber has 38 starts at quarterback under his belt and it will be interested to see how many touches backup QB/converted receiver MarQueis Gray gets. This guy could be the dynamic playmaker they need to fill the void in production left by Eric Decker. With MTSU’s starting quarterback Dwight Dasher suspended for doing things that would make Doug Gottlieb proud, MTSU simply won’t score enough.
Game 2: Southern Miss/South
Don’t over-think this one.
You have a three touchdown home underdog and 92% of the public money on USC. What’s not to like about this play? The first game of the Kiffin era will be a USC victory, but
Game 4: Navy (-6) over
Ricky Dobbs is one of the more underrated signal callers in the nation and should have no problem shredding a
1. Alabama
2. Michael Floyd (-10.5) over Ryan Broyles in Rec Yds ($50 to win $43.48)
- - - - - - - - - -
MIKEY
You know who I am. I crushed Mattare last year and I'll crush him (and Hinkle) again. All lines are from Covers.com.
Game 1: Ohio St. (-28) over Marshall...$55 to win $50
As much as I hate the Buckeyes it's easy to see that they're one of the elite teams in the nation entering the new season. Marshall will be a nice showcase for them to open the season with and display their speed at home before hitting Miami (FL) and the Big Ten schedule. Look for them to shutout the Herd tonight in Columbus.
Game 2: Kentucky (-3) over Louisville...$55 to win $50
I absolutely love opening the season with one of your biggest rivals, it gets your fans going for the season right from Week 1. Kentucky and Louisville will battle it out on the field while their fans compete against each other in beer pong, flip cup, boat races and, as the evening progresses, ro-sham-bo. I know plenty of UK fans and if they're any indication the Wildcats will be victorious in the parking lot and might even win the football game too.
Game 3: Temple (-6) over Villanova...$22 to win $20
I picked this game because I wish college basketball was starting too. Does the Big 5 rivalry transfer to football in Philly? I doubt it but Temple football has a ton of pride and will squash the Wildcats, HOOOOOOT!
Game 4: Boise St. vs. Va Tech (Under 50)...$22 to win $20
This is definitely the best game of opening weekend so it's hard to ignore from a gambling standpoint. Couldn't decide on which side to pick so I'm taking the easy way out and picking the under of the total. I'm hoping both teams will be a little nervous with their high preseason expectations and come out playing conservatively for most of the game. Either way I can't wait to watch it, should be a good one.
$100 Budget of Preseason Futures Bets
1. North Carolina (+500) to win ACC $25 to win $125
2. Andrew Luck (+1800) to win the Heisman $25 to win $450
3. Iowa under 8.5 wins (+170) $25 to win $42.50
4. USC under 9.5 wins (+110) $25 to win $27.50
- - - - - - - - - -
MATTARE
No introduction needed--other than a declaration that I'm planning on paying for my football expenditures with my gambling winnings this fall. No pressure or anything. Like Hinkle I don't see a reason to go crazy this weekend. There aren't many appealing games so we'll stick with a conservative approach.
Game 1: Utah (-3) over Pitt...$27.50 to win $25 (ScoresandOdds)
Schools like Utah LIVE for opportunities like this. Rarely do they get to host any major non-conference games so each time a team like Pitt--who many think are a legitimate BCS contender--comes to town it's like the "Game of the Century" (ex: how Boise State saw their game against Oregon last season). Utah has hosted four BCS conference schools since Whittingham took over in '05: Arizona ('05), UCLA ('07), Oregon St ('08), Louisville ('09). They're 4-0 in those games--including a 44-6 thumping of then #11 UCLA. Combine that with the fact that the Utes are 25-5 under Whittingham at home and my belief that Wannstadt is a fraud and you get the Utes covering.
Game 2: UConn (+130 - Moneyline) over Michigan...$23.10 to win $30 (Sports Interaction)
Michigan is a house of cards ready to fall. UConn is an experienced team (16 returning starters) that has proved it could win against a big name on the road when it knocked off ND last November (hold on while I throw my desk lamp across the room).
The Huskies have a hard-nosed running game led by Jordan Todman (1188yds, 14 TD's) and while QB Zach Frazer isn't a superstar, he can exploit a shaky secondary--which is exactly what Michigan has. This is a bit of a risky pick, but I have a feeling we're about to witness the (official) beginning of the end of Rich Rod's tenure in Ann Arbor.
Game 3: South Carolina/Southern Miss (Under 45.5)...$27.50 to win $25 (Mirage Casino)
The terrible, terrible, terrible game that the Gamecocks played on opening night against NC State is still fresh in my mind. South Carolina could be a sneaky team this year--they've got seven starters back from a stingy defense, nine starters back on offense (including an experienced quarterback--though he may be Chris Rix: Volume II), and a new stud freshman running back (Marcus Lattimore).
Southern Miss returns nine starters on defense but must replace eight on offense. The 'Cocks smother the Golden Eagles and don't score enough to push it to the over (and here's a fun bonus fact: there haven't been 46 combined points scored in any of Spurrier's openers at SC).
Game 4: Ohio State (-28) over Marshall...$27.50 to win $25 (Mirage Casino)
I hate picking games with big spreads like this, but the Bucks are going to absolutely squash Marshall. It's a night game in Columbus which will have the team jacked up and focused. The Herd is going to have no answer for Pryor, whose Heisman campaign officially launches in full force Thursday night.
$100 Budget of Preseason Futures Bets (all from Bodog)
1. Pryor (4-1) for Heisman ($25 to win $100)
2. Toddman (+200) > rush yds than Lewis, Devine, Martinek, and Anderson ($25 to win $50)
3. Devine (12-1) for Heisman ($10 to win $120)
4. Oklahoma (15-2) for National Champ ($20 to win $150)
5. UConn (7-2) for Big East Champ ($10 to win $35)
6. Arizona (7-1) for Pac-10 Champ ($10 to win $70)
No comments:
Post a Comment