Charlie Weis: A First Quarter Assessment

This year I said I would form my opinion on Charlie Weis and whether or not he was going to be the coach to lead Notre Dame back to where we belong. Through three games it’s time to make some early assessments. First, we'll look at the positives.

1. He has proven that he IS the offensive genius we thought he was.

Let's just throw out the beatdown of Nevada. Against Michigan we put up 500 yards of offense and 34 points (100+ yards called back on penalties, some of them--namely the hold Rudolph's run--questionable to say the least). We also engineered two beautiful drives in a hostile environment when the game depended on it. That represented significant progress from the last two years. Against Michigan State we once again put up over 30 points, 400+ yards of offense, and put together another drive to take a lead with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. He finally has significant talent in place and he's utilizing it extremely well--the playcalling has been great and he's had defenses on their heels from start to finish.

2. The transformation of Jimmy Clausen

Jimmy Clausen has turned into what could be the best quarterback in Notre Dame's history. Some people may loft accusations of hyperbole, but he's so in control it's unbelievable. He's averaging over 300 yards a game and has thrown two balls that could have even been CLOSE to being intercepted--and one was because Golden Tate broke off his route when he wasn't supposed to. That's thanks to Charlie Weis's tutelage. There's no denying the effect he has on quarterbacks after seeing this and looking at how he took Brady Quinn from mediocre to 1st round pick.

3. He's learning to adapt and it's paid off--especially on the O-Line

The most important newcomer for Notre Dame this year wasn't Manti Te'o--it was Frank Verducci. The improvement along the offensive line has been staggering. There have been two sacks allowed and both were allowed by Jonas Gray. Not one has been credited as a sack allowed to an offensive lineman. We've converted more 3rd/4th and shorts on the ground this year than we did the last two years COMBINED. A lot of coaches are stubborn and refuse to turn over their staff--which played a significant role in Willingham getting canned when he did--and he has proven he's willing to do that.

Now it's time for the negatives and the huge question marks yet to be answered

1. We continue to lose games to teams with lesser talent

I think we got screw in the Michigan game by the referees. I still don't think that's an excuse--we were CLEARLY the better team on the field and it's ridiculous to think we couldn't find a way to win that game in spite of the odds. Every successful coach at Notre Dame has taken care of business against the teams we should beat. The ones that lose to the Air Forces (Faust), BCs (Willingham), and Purdues (Davie) of the world are the ones that are kicked to the curve. It's not good that we've lost to all three of those schools I just listed--plus NAVY--under Charlie.

2. We are incredibly sloppy and undisciplined

This plays into the first thing and is far and away the most alarming thing. Two straight games with at least 9 penalties. Some of the holding calls in the Michigan game were questionable, but there's no debating the legitimacy of a call when you hit someone outside the field of play. Absolutely inexcusable. The Armando celebration penalty was questionable, but you need to be more disciplined and learn from history (we got screwed for the same exact thing in 1999 in the Big House on a Bobby Brown celebration penalty). This sloppiness and lack of discipline absolutely falls on the coach. If this isn't corrected then the ceiling for Notre Dame will be 9-3 year in and year out.

3. Our defense--specifically our d-line is atrocious

Now this is where a gray area appears. How much blame does Charlie take on for this? We allegedly have one of the best defensive coordinators in the country in Jon Tenuta. Weis has totally turned the reigns on that side of the ball over to him and Corwin Brown and really that's not that uncommon--even among succesful coaches. Steve Spurrier didn't even know his defensive players' names in the 90's when he was dominating at Florida, Joe Gibbs essentially had the same approach when he was coaching the Redskins in the 80's. There's a very obvious problem after three games and Charlie has a responsiblity to step in and dictate a different gameplan (because Tenuta has one and it's blitz every down in every situation). In his press conference this week he alluded to doing this so I'll be curious to see what the changes are. As of right now though I'm willing to give him a pass on this--if only because the side of the ball he's in charge of has been a well-oiled scoring machine.

4. Our special teams has been an embarrassment

This goes right back to #2. Coverage comes down to discipline and we've been terrible at it. One of the most underreported things from the first two games was how terrible our punting was in the clutch. Maust unleashed a 20-yard dud in the Big House when we NEEDED to pin them, then did the same exact thing in the 4th quarter against Michigan State (he just got bailed out by a block in the back). The little things win or lose games. Special teams might be the biggest of the "little things" and we get a big fat F for our performance thus far. Charlie needs to address this immediately, whether it's get different guys on the coverage units or get Ben Turk in the game for Maust. Special teams were more to blame for the loss to Michigan than the refs were.

5. We've never won the big one

First of all, let's not mistake the Michigan game for a big one (that loss falls under category 1). As it has been pointed out about a billion times by a hundred different analysts—who all think they're the first person to say it and clever for thinking it up—Charlie Weis's signature win is a loss to Southern Cal. In my mind our season and Charlie's regime comes down to the Southern Cal game this year. There comes a point where you need to slay the dragon and I think the time is either this year or never (under Charlie). They've proven they're vulnerable, they have a rebuilt defense, and their offense is far from the explosive juggernaut that rolled into town the last time we had a program defining game with them in 2005. There will be a ton of recruits in town for that game--the result will tell them the direction of the program. I think ultimately it will tell us too.

The knee-jerk reaction of many people on message boards has been hit the ejection button. I look around the coaching landscape and I just don't see many realistic options that would be an upgrade over Charlie right now. Some cry for Brian Kelly but are we really willing to go through the turmoil that's sure to follow a firing and risk losing the relatively strong foundation we’ve built for Brian Kelly? The only realistic option I'd be excited about is Jon Gruden, but even then there are some questions.

I really think that the verdict on the Charlie Weis Era will be delivered on October 17, 2009 and I'm willing to withhold judgment until then. I’m pulling for him hard, but I'm still on the fence. The way he wins me over is by doing the jig with me at the 50 yard line when the clock hits zero that day. Hopefully see you there Coach.

Dazed and Confused

I think I’ve run through the entire gauntlet of emotions about Saturday’s game at this point. I’ve been absolutely livid, depressed, and somewhat encouraged. I convinced myself that this was the last straw for Charlie. I convinced myself this was a sign of great things to come. I convinced myself we deserved to lose that game by screwing up the little things. I convinced myself the referees flagrantly robbed us.

In a word I’m confused. Confused enough to write a point-counterpoint article.

With myself.

POINT #1: THE REFS ROBBED NOTRE DAME IN THIS GAME

YES…As I look back at the running diary I had, read the articles on the game, and read the analysis of people like Tim Prister from Rivals.com it’s plain to see this was one of the worst officiated games in a long time. The overturning of Armando’s touchdown was ludicrous; there is no way that you can conclusively say one way or the other, especially with the best camera angle (which was right on the sideline the play happened). The hold called on Sam Young on Rudolph’s 74 yard catch and run was not even close to a hold—even though Matt Millen over and over again said it was (can’t you be competent at anything Mr. Millen?). Charlie’s controversial play call on 2nd down on the final drive should have resulted in a pass interference penalty—the Michigan cornerback had his arm WRAPPED AROUND Tate’s body. On the second to last play of Michigan’s final drive there should’ve been a false start against Brandon Minor but it went uncalled. Armando Allen was called for a field-position altering/game-changing celebration penalty for simply making a “shhh” gesture. I mean when the men in stripes are stacking the odds that far against you in a hostile environment that’s just too hard to overcome.

NO…I don’t think that anyone will debate that the refs were terrible and didn’t help Notre Dame’s cause…but we put 34 points on the board and lost. The refs didn’t have anything to do with Tate Forcier running 40 yards right up the heart of the defense on 4th and 3. The refs didn’t have anything to do on the three special teams plays that changed the game—the kickoff return touchdown, the missed field goal by Tausch, and the terrible punt by Eric Maust. What lost this game was a combination of the Notre Dame defense and special teams, it can’t be pinned on the zebras.

POINT #2: CHARLIE WEIS PROVED HE IS NOT THE MAN FOR THIS JOB

YES…You know there comes a point where you just need to come to grips with the fact that something isn’t working. Charlie Weis is in his fifth season and he’s been given so many free passes I’ve lost count. I forgave him for 2007—the talent level was historically low. Last year I had a tough time swallowing, but before the season I was already looking to 2009 as the year to break out. Now here we are two weeks in and the balloon is already deflated. This was a game that a great coach wins. We were the better team Saturday. Clearly. We had some bad breaks go against us, but a good team overcomes them. This was a game we NEEDED to have in order to sustain the momentum we’d built with our three wins on national television since last Christmas (Hawaii, Te’o, and Nevada). Instead we were sloppy on offense (see: delay of game penalties, early burning of timeouts), undisciplined on defense (see: Tate Forcier scrambling), and terrible on special teams (see: don’t know where to begin). All these things provided Michigan with the opportunities necessary to seize victory. A Lou Holtz coached team wins this game going away. Urban Meyer’s teams would too. Notre Dame deserves a great coach. I don’t know if Jon Gruden, Brian Kelly, or any other candidate is…but after four plus years without a signature win, Charlie has proven he is not.

NO…Charlie showed exactly why Notre Dame hired him Saturday. We rolled up 500+ yards of offense in The Big House and put 34 points on the scoreboard. If the refs would’ve thrown the flag they should have on second down of that last drive (Tate’s should-have-been pass interference) we’re talking about how Charlie’s team finally turned the corner and learned how to win. If you don’t want to pin the loss on the refs it definitely falls on the other side of the ball. There are a lot of great coaches that have only worried about one side of the ball and left the other side totally up to the coordinator. Steve Spurrier never even knew who his players on defense were. Joe Gibbs allocated responsibility to his coordinators as well and that worked out well for him. Charlie did his job—he engineered a brilliant offense that overcame a two score deficit in the fourth quarter. He’s assembled an unbelievable arsenal of talent that rivals the glory days of Lou Holtz and he’s got more help on the way. The defense is still a year away and people who really looked at the front seven and realized we’d be counting on six or seven freshmen and sophomore to play significant roles should have tempered expectations for it this season. Next year every single person will be back on the two deep in the front seven. All-world defensive end recruit Chris Martin is on his way next year too. Every person at the skill positions on offense has at least one year of eligibility left after this year. Charlie has assembled something special here, the pieces are finally in place, and after October 17th we could be right back on track.

POINT #3: JON TENUTA IS NOT THE GUY TO TAKE THIS DEFENSE TO THE NEXT LEVEL

YES…Everyone loves Tenuta’s attitude and tenacity, but his inflexibility means that there will come a time every year where he’s burned. The last five years as a coordinator his defenses allowed 31 or more points at least twice every season. Twice he’s faced a spread option and he’s given up 38 each time (note: both times his offense put up at least 34 points and lost). This week when the blitz wasn’t working he blitzed some more. The front seven was incredibly undisciplined and seemed to be on their heels the entire final drive. There is a ton of talent but it doesn’t seem to have been shaped yet. The guy only has one gear and not being able to adjust—especially to something like the spread—is only going to hinder us every year.

NO…He’s improved Notre Dame’s defense unbelievably since he arrived. There is limited talent on the defensive line right now and what talent we do have is raw and inexperienced. The blitzes aren’t effective at this point because those defensive linemen can’t even occupy the blockers so they can’t handle those who come on the blitzes. You can’t blame him for the kickoff return, you can’t blame him for Darius Fleming getting his ankles broken on Tate Forcier’s scramble, and you can’t blame him for giving Michigan a short-field on their last TWO drives. That was his second look at the spread in years and years of coaching. He’ll be ready for the next go around. And you know what? I’d like to see anyone say he’s not the man to his face. Good luck coming back with your jaw intact.

POINT #4: MICHIGAN STATE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME OF THE YEAR

YES...If Notre Dame loses this game then you can officially call the Weis era over. We’re better than Michigan State. They just lost to the Central Michigan Chippewas. We haven’t beaten them at home in over a decade—including twice under Charlie’s watch. Kirk Herbstreit said on ESPN that Weis will never feel as much pressure as he feels this week and I agree. The air in South Bend has been contaminated; lose this game and it will be toxic.

NO…Like I've said before, it seems like every game of the year is the most important game of the year. The fact of the matter is the most important game of this season that will determine the direction of the entire program for the foreseeable future is on October 17th against Southern Cal. That will be the game that lets Notre Dame fans know exactly where the team is headed. It would be the “signature win” everyone has clamored for, it would be a catapult to what could be a golden era, and it would be the moment where everyone knows the right man is in place. That’s where all the pressure in the world will be—it’ll make Michigan State look easier than taking a recruit from Stanford.

POINT #5: THE SEASON IS LOST

YES…This needed to be a special season. After being kicked to the ground and stepped on starting with the 2006 Southern Cal game up until the 2008 Southern Cal game it was time to come out and take advantage of the gift that was laid at our feet. We had a year where the schedule was the easiest in school history with only four true road games, Michigan was down, Southern Cal was at home with a freshman quarterback at the helm, starters back at every position of a high-powered offense, and loads of talent (albeit raw) on defense. In order to climb into the national title discussion we needed to run the table because there isn’t anyone (other than Southern Cal) that could jump us up the polls. After taking two steps forward against Nevada, we immediately took three steps back. Michigan and Nevada both exposed a chasm in the middle of our defense and it’s borderline delusional to think that the stable of backs from Los Angeles won’t do even more damage when they come to town. We’re headed for 9-3 season which some people will call significant progress. With this schedule and these circumstances that just doesn’t cut it.

NO…Tell me that before the season you wouldn’t have taken 11-1 or 10-2 with a win over Southern Cal and I’d call you a liar. Like stated previously, this season will come down to October 17th. Flaws have been exposed but there is ample time to fix them before then. There have been plenty of good signs on offense that say no matter what team is lined up against us will have problems slowing us down. If we have just one loss when they roll into town the Michigan loss will be forgotten. If we win that game then the last two years will be forgotten. Charlie’s Waterloo will be that day; it’s just a matter of whether he or his detractors will play the role of Napoleon.

September 12th, 2009: The Tipping Point

This weekend two storied programs arrive at a tipping point. One team will leave the field at the Big House with confidence riding high enough to push season and program expectations up notch. The other will likely be left to wade through a quagmire of doubt and back-breaking pressure for what could be a season that feels longer than eternity.

Notre Dame and Michigan have weathered similar trials and tribulations since 2007. They both registered disastrous 3-9 campaigns, suffered arguably the worst home loss in school history, and both teams’ coaches desperately need an immediate 180 degree turnaround to stave off those that want their heads on a platter. Notre Dame seemingly is a year ahead of Michigan in the rebuilding process, but the patience for Coach Rodriguez has whittled down to just about absolute zero after a staggering number of bad decisions. Shortly after taking the job he publicly bashed Michigan boosters (claiming they needed to “get a life”…in the north they call that biting the hand that feeds you Rich), he’s had a mass exodus of players, he’s embroiled in a scandal where former and current players have reported NCAA violations of breaking practice limit rules, and by all accounts he has alienated many important people within the University. Rodriguez doesn’t seem to grasp the culture of a football program that matters more than just about anything to some people. There’s no denying his talent and ability as a coach, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to whether he fits in at such a school.

Billy Gillispie at Kentucky provides a perfect precedent. He was a very capable coach who came in and made a splash…then quickly went to work destroying all good will within the administration through moves like not ever signing his contract (one of the dumbest and most mind-blowing things I’ve ever heard) and turning the fan base against him with both mediocre to poor performance and an icy personality. Before anyone had time to utter the words “rebuilding” he was gone. Two years from the toast of Lexington to being chased by a camera crew through the halls of the athletic department after being canned. Could Rich Rod be on the same track? Does he just not get it?

There just seems to be an awful lot of smoke surrounding the program. The fact that so many people transferred and took shots while walking out the door is not as alarming as people think—it’s the fact that CURRENT PLAYERS are reporting violations, essentially undermining and disrespecting the coaching staff. A beatdown of Western Michigan has cautious optimism flowing again, but to me this just seems like their foundation is as sturdy as a house of cards. A win could solidify that base of confidence and springboard them to a season that surpasses all preseason expectations. Another loss to a hated rival like Notre Dame—especially if it gets ugly—could put him in the express lane to Billy’s ultimate destination…and this time crocodile tears won’t flip the fan base in his favor.

Coach Weis’s problems have been well-documented but things seem to be stabilizing a bit compared to Rodriguez’s situation. The Irish demonstrated just how explosive their offense could be last weekend against Nevada and the defense—while certainly not perfect—put the clamps on a pretty dynamic offense led by one of the best multi-threat quarterbacks in the country. If Notre Dame leaves Ann Arbor with another convincing victory suddenly the bandwagon will begin to fill. If they leave with a loss to a Michigan team that is clearly not “back” yet Charlie will have to deal with more questions and more damaging things than derogatory billboards.

The fact of the matter is the fate of the next five years for the program hinges on the success of this year. As opposed to the past few years major difference-making recruits are playing a wait-and-see game when it comes to the Irish. Entering the national title discussion COULD lead to a haul that would make ND recruitniks weak at the knees. Another season of mediocrity could get the ball rolling in the wrong direction and lead to the end of this regime. Winning Saturday sends them down one path—losing sends them down the other.

My buddy and fellow die-hard Pat and I used laugh at the fact that every game seemed to be the most important game of the season the week leading up to the game. When you aren’t quite sure whether your team has turned the corner or not that becomes true though. Michigan is the most important game of the year for Notre Dame. Next Tuesday I’ll get on the phone with Pat and we’ll both agree that Michigan State is the most important game of the year. A month from now we’ll get on the phone and talk about how Southern Cal could be the most important game in school history. It’s a vicious cycle. Older alums hate being on it and long for the days of being the hunted not the hunter. Younger fans yearn for those days too but just don’t know any other way.

When the final gun fires a little over 24 hours from now we’ll know a lot about both teams. There will be clarity on the general direction of both programs and it will set a course for which way the momentum cascades the rest of this season. For Michigan a hard-fought, close loss will at least sustain some semblance of momentum. For Notre Dame the bar is set at winning—there is no such thing as a moral victory. Both coaches seem to have a lot of people with one foot on the bandwagon. When the final gun sounds in the Big House one will have everyone all aboard and the other will immediately face the wrath of skeptics from outside the program and within.

The spotlight has never burned brighter, Charlie. This is an opportunity to take that next step and kick a rival down the stairs in the process. After a victory pundits will downplay it, saying Michigan wasn’t very good and it means nothing—just like they did after the Nevada game. Those who truly watch will know better though.

Those are the people you want on your bandwagon, Coach...and they’re yours for the taking tomorrow.